Hello, Skyrexians!
While Bitcoin is locked inside the price range between 60k and 70k, altcoins look dead. While we saw fantastic rally for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance coin and other largest altcoins, most of crypto assets are still testing the bottom. This price actions can disappoint even best crypto traders. People usually trading cryptocurrency for profit, but now even if you bought altcoins at the bottom you have a very small profit.
In March 2024 most of crypto trading strategies predicted the further pump, but instead of this we can see -60% drop for most of crypto coins. Even most of trading bot strategies faced with huge losses during last 3 month. During the bullish phase the best decision is to use grid trading bot, but this time price went out from the grid bot trading range, therefore even automated trading bots faced with losses.
In our opinion such shakeout was needed because of excessive optimism on the crypto market. People needs to be disappointed and sell their crypto before the true bull run. Now it’s happening, we will show you our thoughts about crypto market and will try to analyze what is coming next.
Bitcoin analysis
As it usually happens Bitcoin started moving up first. It’s bull run started at the beginning of 2023. We will analyze 1W time frame. Awesome Oscillator and Alligator showing us that Bitcoin is still in global wave 3 because of it’s maximum value. Moreover AO still has not crossed zero line. It means that there are a lot of time before bull market will be finished.
We predict the wave 3 finish in the upcoming 1-2 months with the price target approximately at $80k. Let’s use this target to predict the further scenario. We have the super confident target for the wave 4. It’s inside the range between 0.38 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement for the wave 3. It’s inside the range $54-61k. Moreover, lower degree wave 4 has been finished there. When price will reach this zone, for bullish reversal bar and AO crosses zero line, it can be the strong sign that global wave 4 is finished.
Assuming that wave 4 will be finished in this zone we can predict the target for the wave 5. We have to take the distance from wave 1 bottom the wave 3 top and measure it from wave 4 bottom. This is the maximum target for the wave 5 and the entire bull run, at $115k. The minimal target is 0.61 from this distance, approximately at $92k. Anyway, this wave shall be printed in conjunction with the AO bearish divergence to kill this bull trend.
Taking into account that wave 4 can be very long in terms of time this bull run will be finished in the middle of 2025.
Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin is moving clear, but what with altcoins? The key chart for altcoins is the BTC Dominance chart. Every time we see huge drop on it, massive alt seasons happen.
Chart 1. BTC.D chart
You can say that this is not a real asset and it’s impossible to predict it’s value, but all these movements is the trader’s psychology. Therefore we can use classical TA tools here. BTC Dominance now is inside the target area 0.5-0.61 Fibonacci. There is a high chance that massive dump will start from here. This time it can break 40% and finally reach 24%. We believe that this time this decrease can be on the real Bitcoin’s dump. Large players have a huge gains on Bitcoin and they need to distribute liquidity to take profit, that’s why alt seasons usually happens. We predict the altseason start in the upcoming 2 months.
Cardano (ADA) analysis
Chart 2. ADA weekly time frame
Let’s move on to altcoins analysis and start with the old assets ADA. It has enough history to make a price prediction. Previous bear market bottom was at $0.02, this time it has reached $0.2. You can say it’s 10x from the bottom, how it will go up?
We can conclude that ADA is the uptrend crypto asset because it’s making higher lows from cycle to cycle. Therefore the previous bull run could be just the wave 1. Global wave 2 finished with the bullish divergence with AO on the weekly time frame and after that we have seen this local rally. This rally is just the wave 1 of the new bull run and current dump is just a correction to it. For sure we need more disappointment, that’s why we expect more sideways in the current range. When everybody will be disappointed the huge wave 3 starts. It has two targets: $3.3 and $5.2 if this bull run will be extended.
Cosmos (ATOM) analysis
The main question of the day is why such fundamentally strong asset like ATOM is still at the bottom, while meme coins made 10x. For sure it was a huge mistake, but as we can see now people hate such assets like ATOM. They want to buy Solana or PEPE instead and it’s good sign for ATOM holders. We make our predictions based only on charts and this chart is also telling us about bull run is coming.
Chart 3. ATOM weekly time frame
ATOM is also making higher lows from cycle to cycle. The main difference with ADA is that Cosmos has printed shortened wave 5. First bullish wave finished in March and now price is finishing wave 2. Wave 3 will start suddenly when nobody believe it that. We suppose in September will be huge gains on fundamental projects. Minimal target is $49, maximum one is $77 according to 1 and 1.61 Fibonacci extensions.
Polkadot (DOT) analysis
The last crypto asset for today is DOT. It has almost the same pattern like previous two assets. Wave 5 of bear market was not shortened here that’s why we have seen rally more than for ATOM.
Previous bear market bottom has been reached much lower that in the current cycle. In our opinion the first wave of the new bull run has been already printed ad current disappointing wave 2 is trying to persuade people to sell their assets.
Chart 4. DOT weekly time frame
After 1-2 month of consolidation and may be making lower lows locally we will see the huge push the the upside. The minimal target is $56, maximum equals $89.
Conclusion
Most of altcoins are in the huge accumulation which lasts for almost two years. In the previous bear market was almost the same time before significant gains. For sure this time can be different and may be it’s time to die for altcoins, but Elliott Waves analysis reflects perfectly the crowd’s mood. If now we can see still a lot of optimism, if price will continue sideways they disappoint.
Overall, we can see now two groups of traders. The first one is still bullish, the second one is waiting for new lows below the current consolidation to enter the market. We suppose that both major groups shall be fooled, market maker will not allow assets to dump that much, but at the same time he will not pump it before most of bulls sell their assets.
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