Hello, Skyrexians!
This weekend was extremely fearful on the crypto market, even more, today is a true “black Monday” and not only crypto, but also traditional markets are crashing right now. The most commonly known crypto trading strategies gave false signals before the crash. Most of top crypto trading platforms and top crypto traders faces with the huge losses, algorithmic trading bots and other algorithmic crypto trading software led their users to losses and liquidation. Different automated trading bots, grid bot and other cryptocurrency trading also performed awful for most of a people. Only ai crypto trading bot allowed people not to lose.
The really dark time came to the market, how to overcome all this FUD and be successful in crypto trading. We know that the most important is understanding on which market phase we are now. In today’s article we will look at the different charts and time frames on BTC price chart and try to understand what is coming next.
Monthly time frame shows it’s almost done
If you see our previous Bitcoin analysis you will find that $49k was absolutely reachable. But the speed of this move really concerns us and we need to take a look at the global picture first of all. The sideways which started in March 2024 led to the first red column on Awesome Oscillator, and this is our first reminder that the bull market is not forever. This is the first sign of weakness. Momentum is gone, therefore we cannot wait for the bull run continuation to the insane numbers like $200k. Bull market is almost over! The bearish divergence and Elliott waves counting tells us that wave 5 of super cycle is done and we will enter the bear market which has never been before.
Is it time to panic? We assume not! Last wave 5 shall also consists of 5 waves and we cannot see now the clear confirmation that this bull run is finished. It’s weakening but will likely continue. Where it will be finished. The approximate projection for wave 5 shows us that BTC will likely reach $80k+, but not significantly higher. After that we will see the bear market with target at $35k.
Which wave of bull market now?
We discussed that current bull run is wave 5 of super cycle, how much price needs to go up more to finish it? Looking at 1W time frame and Awesome Oscillator we can see that wave 3 has been finished, now we are in wave 4. It will be finished when AO crosses zero line. It means that wave 4 is not finished. The great fact that price has exactly reached the target are for this wave at Fibonacci 0.5.
We don’t expect the immediate pump from here, but dump is almost finished. We expect disappointing range between $49k and $58k. After that the pump to wave 5 target area between $85k and $110k is anticipated. This bull run is gonna be over with the bearish divergence with AO and we suppose it will happen in 2025.
Deep dive into correction
On the price chart below you can see 2 days time frame. Here we can find the structure of wave 3 and 4 of this bull run. Wave 3 was tricky because it’s wave 5 was shortened. It can confuse even best crypto traders. After that we saw the waves A and B inside wave 4.
Now price is printing wave C. It can be rapid like we saw today, but looks like it’s not done yet. It’s likely that we will not see price significantly lower, but if we are wrong, the max dump target is 0.61 Fibonacci. Now it’s $43500.
When wave C will be finished
As we can see on the chart below, wave 3 inside wave C still in progress. Conservative target has been reached. The max target is $45k which perfectly fits with analysis above. Anyway to say that correction is over we have to see 5 wave first.
Conclusion
Despite all the FUD and panic we are sure that Bitcoin will be bottomed soon. Moreover this correction is needed to make people scared and sell their altcoins. The good news that after such negative the probability of massive altseason increased. How it works? Most of people will not buy now at the sell-off. They will wait for bounce to sell, thinking that it’s all over. This is great liquidity for large players. They will absorb all theses tokens and can send the price to ATH.
Best regards,
Skyrex Team
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